.
WxBlog / 20100220A

Looking messier for Monday

On the radar, a minor band of snow / freezing rain is imminent for Fort Wayne (at 9AM Saturday). This is unrelated to the low pressure system expected to arrive late Sunday.

We still look to be on the eastern fringe of the sweet spot for the low expected to come out of the Plains Sunday night through Monday; however, the temperature profile forecasted by the 6Z NAM (1AM today) shows a warm layer (i.e. above freezing) from just above the surface up to about 1 mile above the surface until late Monday afternoon (when colder air moves in. The surface temperature hovers at freezing the entire time, so this could be a major ice storm … or it could be just disgustingly cold rain. We are still forecast to get about .9" of moisture; with only the last quarter inch coming as snow before it ends, leaving us with a couple inches of wet snow by Tuesday morning.

This morning's statement from the IWX meteorologists:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

…WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY…

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN CURVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY… BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW… SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER IN OHIO AND INDIANA. FARTHER SOUTH… ALONG THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR INCLUDING PLYMOUTH… WARSAW… FORT WAYNE… AND LIMA… A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH LESSER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED… BUT THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONTICELLO TO PERU TO PORTLAND SHOULD MAINLY GET RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM… WITH SOME MINOR SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS A LONG WAY FROM OUR AREA AT THIS TIME… THUS… THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LESS SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE. PEOPLE PLANNING TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS WINTER STORM.

permalink

awc 2010-02-20 09:06:25
CoCoRaHS
IN-AL-39
A2 Web Hosting
Creative Commons License
GoDaddy
Look for:

loaded 2017-10-18 03:52:31 • last modified 2010-02-20 09:06:25
Privacy PolicyDisclaimer
• wx.awcolley.com is powered by PmWiki v.2002016 •
• all content (unless otherwise noted) © 2017 A W Colley