The weekend storm may graze us Sunday
The center of the storm coming out of Texas over the next few days will pass well to our south and east. However, the 12Z NAM is indicating that Fort Wayne will be on the northern fringe of the precipitation area between 1300 and 1900 ET Sunday (17 Jan), giving us between 0.1" and 0.2" precipitation (water equivalent).
Unfortunately, except for a very thin layer at the surface, the bottom 2 km of the atmosphere is forecast to be above freezing; and it looks like the surface won't dip below 30F. Definitely no snow, but freezing rain is a possibility; especially since tomorrow will stay near or below freezing, thus letting branches, wires, etc. stay cold enough to support ice build-up.
The 12Z GFS keeps the storm further south and east of us, and leaves us completely dry. I'll give the NAM slightly more weight and go with a 60% chance of freezing rain AT MY HOUSE Sunday afternoon and early evening, with less than 0.2" ice build-up (if any).
The heaviest precipitation in Indiana from this storm would be along and south of an Evansville-Dayton line, where they could get up to 0.4" rain.
UPDATE 15 Jan 16:30
Almost as soon as I post this, the 18Z NAM is finally done. That run actually gives us more precipitation, but less chance of it freezing. Precipitation would arrive around noon Sunday and move out by 1AM Monday. For the first couple of hours, the surface temperature will be at or slightly below freezing, for the remainder of the event it would be about 34F. Total precip of about 0.25".
UPDATE 16 Jan 00:40
The 16 Jan 00Z NAM now has the storm mostly missing us … staying further east. It has us getting only about 0.05" rain, and only between 7PM and 10PM Sunday evening. I wish it would make up its mind.
awc 2010-01-15 16:18
|  IN-AL-99 |
